Why life expectancy over-predicts crude death rate
نویسندگان
چکیده
Abstract Life expectancy is widely used and reported; for example, the UN Human Development Index uses life as a key component. But many users of period do not understand interpret demographers do. In particular, almost always over-predicts crude death rate. Indeed, in most observed populations, annual deaths recorded are less than one may expect corresponding stationary population. To explain this over-prediction, paper we analyze how deviations from stationarity affect We use theory to show that small age structure (as high 20% at each age) lead over-prediction. Then examine global data over-prediction widespread, occurring even populations where deviation large. Finally, around world over decades have structures far (or indeed, stability). also often due demographic transition, with population bulges middle ages mortality low.
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Genus
سال: 2023
ISSN: ['0016-6987', '2035-5556']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1186/s41118-023-00188-8